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Gone are the days when a car struggled to reach 100,000 miles on the odometer. At the beginning of the 21st century, you could expect a reliable new vehicle to last about nine years, and a 10-year-old car with 100,000 miles was a risky fixer-upper. However, consumers have pressed the demand for safe and reliable cars over the years.
According to S&P Global Mobility, the average vehicle age in the United States has reached a new record lifespan of 12.6 years. Read more to see what this trend might mean for your daily driver.
S&P Global Mobility is a leading expert in automotive data. It is a division of S&P Global that gathers and analyzes trends and other statistical data. They then use information, such as vehicle registration data, to help consumers and businesses alike understand and navigate the current automotive landscape and prepare for upcoming trends and advancements of tomorrow.
In their most recent study, S&P Global Mobility estimates that the average age of American vehicles has risen to 12.6 years, which equates to approximately 150,000 to 200,000 miles. This data indicates that car owners are holding onto their vehicles longer than ever before, at least for passenger cars and light trucks. Comparatively, the average age of vehicle growth in U.S. vehicles has been about two months since January 2023.
However, the study also indicates that we may be reaching the peak of this trend since the average age growth from 2022 to 2023 was three months, one month faster than this year. Experts expect the trend to peak in 2028 when the growth of the volume of vehicles in that age range ends. New vehicle sales are expected to hit 16 million units in 2024, compared to 15.6 million in 2023 and a dismal 13.9 million in 2022, when COVID-19 and pandemic-related shortages disrupted sales.
Despite consumers holding on to their vehicles longer, the number of vehicles in operation (VIO) is steadily climbing. As of January 2024, there were 286 million vehicles in operation, which is 2 million more than in 2023.
Currently, less than 90 million cars (35%) are under six years old, compared to 98 million in 2019. Statistics show that that number continues to fall as the average age of cars continues to rise. It is expected to reach its lowest point in 2028 when only 30% of the VIO will be under six years of age.
As it stands, 38% of the vehicles in operation (VIO), about 110 million cars, are already in the age range of 6-14 years. These vehicles are well beyond the original manufacturer’s warranty of 3 years or 36,000 miles. The number of cars in this age range is expected to continue to rise.
If the total number of vehicles on the road has grown, and people are keeping their vehicles longer, how many cars are no longer active and are scrapped? According to S&P Global Mobility, the scrappage rates have held steady at 4.5% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024. However, the vehicle types that are heading to the scrap yard are eye-opening, potentially revealing the direction of the U.S. automotive industry.
As of January 2024, two passenger cars were scrapped for every new passenger vehicle registration. About 27 million passenger vehicles have headed to the scrap yard since 2020, compared to only 13 million new car registrations. This trend indicates that they are exiting the roadways at about double the speed at which they are selling.
However, the same is not true for light trucks. U.S. car owners are purchasing trucks faster than they are scrapping them, with only 26 million being scrapped since 2020 and a whopping 45 million new registrations. The data is clear — drivers prefer utility vehicles.
Although the U.S. auto industry didn’t embrace electric cars as quickly as auto manufacturers hoped, the EV market is growing and catching momentum. As of January 2023, there were about 3.2 million EVs on the road. 2023 saw a significant rate of EV growth (a 52% increase) when EV registrations broke the threshold of 1 million units registered for the first time in the U.S.
Currently, the average age of electric cars is 3.5 years, which has been about the same since 2019. This doesn’t mean that they aren’t lasting longer, however. The average number is kept low because the number of new registrations continues to increase and is expected to continue to grow over the next ten years. As the EV industry begins to steady, the average age of electric cars is expected to increase.
It wasn’t very long ago when vehicle trade-ins happened about every three to five years. Some car owners were drawn by the peace of mind of the bumper-to-bumper warranty, others wanted the latest safety and creature comforts, and for some, it was just the new car smell. However, the allure of buying a new car has faded due to a variety of factors.
Experts agree that one of the biggest reasons for the average vehicle age growth is the price of buying a new vehicle. Even though the cost of a new car is down by about $670 from a year ago, the average new car price is still a staggering $48,000. The price tag alone makes buying a new car cost-prohibitive, no matter how badly a prospective buyer may want a new ride. Even if you purchase a used vehicle, pre-owned vehicles are still averaging around $25,000.
Not only are the vehicle prices up, but so are the auto loan interest rates. According to a recent report, if you’re qualified with a super prime credit score over 781, you may qualify for a low loan interest rate of 5.38% for a new car or 6.8% for a pre-owned vehicle. On the other end, if you have a 601-660 (near prime), you’re looking at 9.62% or 13.72%, respectively. The rates go up from there with lower credit scores. The higher auto financing rates make cars less affordable.
Due to the higher prices, auto financing companies are offering extended payment options. In 2021, the average payment terms for new car financing were five years and six months. Today, 84-month terms are common, meaning that it will take about seven years to pay off a brand-new car. Many car owners are choosing to keep their vehicles for a few payment-free years after they pay them off.
While some people prefer a fuel-efficient vehicle, others want towing capacity and 4-wheel drive, and others crave speed, one feature every car owner wants is reliability. Thanks in part to consumer demand for more reliable vehicles, vehicles are lasting longer than ever before. Today, a well-maintained car from a reliable vehicle manufacturer, such as Toyota or Honda, can easily last 200,000 miles.
Automakers are using higher-quality materials and advanced automotive technology in their manufacturing, so cars are less susceptible to corrosion, rust, and excessive wear and tear. A better vehicle means a higher price tag, but owners also get to keep their cars longer.
With the push for green vehicle options, experts believe that drivers may be reluctant to buy a new vehicle while the infrastructure is still growing. Consumers have expressed concern about running out of power between the charging stations. Therefore, they’re waiting for the network to build up in their area.
Other drivers want to buy an electric vehicle, but the limited options and the higher MSRP are adding to their reluctance. Some are holding on to their traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle or hybrid vehicle longer while they wait for additional, budget-friendly electric vehicle options to become available.
Vehicle owners deciding to keep their investments longer is making waves throughout the automotive industry. The aging car trend puts a dent in new car sales but the ripple effect extends to every aspect of the vehicle service industry. As vehicles age, they get into the prime range for aftermarket vehicle services.
When consumers decide to keep their vehicles rather than buy a new car, it impacts the supply chain (or supply and demand). The demand is falling, which means there are more vehicles at the car dealerships (a higher supply than in previous years), which is slowly bringing the cost of new cars down. As of January 2024, new vehicle prices were $2,000 less than their peak in December of 2022, according to JD Power.
However, while they are selling fewer new units, car dealerships can make up for a dip in sales by selling original equipment manufacturer (OEM) car parts. Aging vehicles have more wear and tear and will eventually need replacements and repairs. Some car owners will undoubtedly turn to the aftermarket parts providers for comparable, low-cost car parts. However, other car owners will inevitably want to replace their car parts with high-quality parts manufactured specifically for their vehicles.
Inflation in the car industry has left many consumers looking for cost-saving options. This trend has opened the door for emerging aftermarket parts producers. Aftermarket car parts provide access to affordable replacement parts when the OEM parts eventually wear out. Vehicle owners can choose to get a similar replacement or, in some cases, add a custom look to their vehicle.
National and local car parts retailers will likely see an increase in demand. As vehicles age, they need more maintenance and repairs. Therefore, vehicle parts may be in higher demand as car owners, mechanics, and car repair shops alike will need access to replacements.
Vehicle mechanics and vehicle service sectors are already seeing an increase in volume. As vehicles age, they require more maintenance, which means more car owners will need cambios de aceite, fluid flushes, tire rotations, etc.
Additionally, as vehicles age, they are also at an increased risk of mechanical breakdown. When vehicle parts need repair or replacement, hiring a qualified automotive technician ensures that the repairs are done correctly.
As vehicles age, eventually, their manufacturer warranties expire. Unfortunately, when this happens, car owners are left to pay out-of-pocket for unexpected and often expensive repairs. Simultaneously, the likelihood of a mechanical breakdown increases as a vehicle ages.
An extended warranty company can provide a buffer between your wallet and a potential financial hardship. Most auto protection plans are surprisingly affordable, and many car owners prefer the predictability of monthly payments over unexpected repair bills. Therefore, extended warranties are increasing in demand.
Aging vehicles typically have a higher car insurance cost. Older car parts are harder to find, and older vehicles don’t generally have as many safety features. Therefore, car insurance providers will charge more.
Although the new average car age is 12.6, that means that some vehicles are lasting longer (or breaking earlier). Car owners who decide to keep their vehicles aren’t achieving longevity through luck and neglect. The ones who successfully keep their vehicles to 200,000 miles and beyond are taking the steps necessary to enhance longevity.
If you intend to get the most out of your used car investment, consider looking into vehicles with notorious reliability, such as Toyota and Honda. Each of these auto manufacturers produces cars that frequently last from 200,000 to 300,000 miles. Some models, like the Toyota Camry or Honda Accord, can reach more than 300,000 with proper care. Don’t just look at car manufacturers, though. Some vehicles stand out as long-lasting powerhouses. Consider full-sized pickup trucks, like the Ford F150 or Chevrolet Silverado.
Although choosing a reliable make and model has an impact, those vehicles are only reliable if you take care of them. Making sure that you find a local car mechanic to help with routine car care can minimize strain, wear, and tear on your vehicle and help your vehicle last. They can also spot potential problems early.
Avoid aggressive driving habits like hard accelerations, braking, or cornering. All of these can add unnecessary stress to your engine, transmission, or suspension. Take longer trips when possible. Short trips and city driving with frequent stops put more stress on your vehicle than longer trips and highway routes.
Washing your vehicle does more to help it than improve its cosmetic appearance. Taking it to the car wash helps to wash away corrosive environmental sediment, like salt from the ocean or salty roads. You can also prolong your vehicle’s life by avoiding extreme heat, cold, ice, and air pollution. These can deteriorate plastic and rubber and add excess stress to your vehicle’s systems. Finally, avoid damaging your suspension and steering by avoiding hazards like potholes or speed bumps and regularly checking your tire alignment.
No matter how careful you drive or how reliable your car is, breakdowns are an inevitable part of vehicle ownership. Unfortunately, as used cars age, they eventually lose their original manufacturer’s coverage, which leaves drivers open to hefty vehicle repair bills. After about age 4, the factory warranty is expired (or close to expiring), and there is an elevated risk of minor repairs, like belts and hoses, car batteries, and tires. By age 8, the likelihood of significant repairs dramatically increases, and by age 13, major components start wearing out, potentially exceeding your vehicle’s value.
Extended car warranties, also known as vehicle service contracts, through third-party providers like Endurance, can provide a financial safety net if and when something breaks. Extended warranties can protect you against the high cost of engine, transmission, and drive axle repairs. Having coverage on your vehicle before it breaks down can help maximize the lifespan of your car, take the stress out of a stressful situation, and minimize your downtime for major repairs.
Endurance Warranty auto protection plans are customizable, with flexible payment plans based on your needs and budget. Plus, every plan comes with standard benefits like Asistencia en carretera 24 horas al día, 7 días a la semana and towing, trip interruption coverage, rental car reimbursement, and more. Plus, they’re backed by a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have time to make sure you have the right coverage for your needs.
Most people start determining whether they’d rather take on a new car payment or pay unexpected repair bills when their vehicle reaches eight years old. Thankfully, an extended vehicle warranty can provide a third option, allowing you to keep a car you’re comfortable with.
Car owners who are keeping their vehicles on the road longer are doing so by:
With the average vehicle age hitting all-time highs, there is an increased need to care for and protect your older or high-mileage vehicle. Vehicle protection plans can help you avoid breaking the budget with an unexpected repair bill by offering predictable and affordable monthly payments.
Find the best extended car warranty for your vehicle by calling an Endurance plan advisor at (800) 253-8203. Get a FREE quote based on your needs, budget, and driving style. You can also tienda en linea instead to see your best price.
Our blog offers answers to frequently asked questions and helpful automotive articles. You can also find more maintenance tips, see how long your vehicle will last, plan comparisons, and more.
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Al hacer clic en el botón, acepta que Endurance utilice tecnología automatizada para llamarlo, enviarle un correo electrónico y enviarle mensajes de texto utilizando la información de contacto anterior, incluido su número de teléfono móvil, si se proporciona, con respecto a la protección del automóvil o, en California, el seguro contra averías mecánicas. También acepta el Endurance política de privacidad y Términos y condiciones. El consentimiento no es una condición de compra y puede retirar el consentimiento en cualquier momento. Se pueden aplicar tarifas por mensajes y datos.
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Amanda has over 10 years of experience in marketing direct-to-consumer products and services. She is the Content Marketing Manager at Endurance Warranty Services, helping to inform drivers about comprehensive auto protection plans and the latest news in the automotive industry.